How many times have you seen advertisements offering you betting systems that guarantee that you can make a fortune easily? You may have seen similar claims posted in betting forums around the internet, in spam emails, or in junk mail dropping through your letter box.
I am not referring here to betting tipsters. There are some great tipping services around, for horse racing and football, and particularly for more obscure sports, and some of them may even make the disciplined punter a profit. Some of the best tipsters don’t even charge for their service, offering their advice for free in their blogs or in betting forums.
My warning in this article refers to betting systems which claim that the gambler has only to follow preset rules to win in the long term. The systems are claimed to win without the need for any analysis of the event being bet on.
One of the most common systems of this type that you will encounter is the Martingale system. This is a very simple idea, and one that at first glance seems infallible. It is usually associated with roulette and other games where there are even chance bets, but it is often adapted for use with racing and football. Using roulette as the example, the basic idea is that you place a bet of 1 unit on red or black. If you win you have a profit of 1 unit. If you lose you double your stake to 2 units and bet on the same colour. If you win this time you receive 4 units, again making a profit of 1 unit, taking into account the 1 unit lost on the first bet. If you lose you double the stake again to 8. This process is repeated until you win, at which point your profit will always be 1 unit. This sounds like easy money, but is it really.
The problem with this system is that although it may appear to work over the short term, eventually a long sequence of losses WILL occur. When this happens the consequences will be severe. In the first place the gambler will need a huge bank. After just 6 losses the stake will be 64 units, and a cumulative outlay of 127 units. After 8 losses the stake is 256 and the total outlay 511. This is to win 1 unit. Even if you had such a bankufabet เว็บพนันออนไลน์ยอดนิยม your system would fall apart because you will come up against the house or bookmaker limit. At this point you realise that the long term odds were against you, and that you should have avoided the Martindale system
Another horse racing betting system I read about recently, which I will call ‘Backing Favourites Blindly’, instructs you to do just that. The premise of the system is that on any given day a favourite must win at one of the meetings. Your task is to set yourself an amount that you want to win, and after winning it stop betting for the day. In the first race you stake an amount on the favourite that will return the desired profit. If that amount was 50 units, and the odds are 2/1 your stake is 25 units. If you win that is it for the day. Easy money. If you lose you must now move on to the next race and stake enough to return 75 units, the total of your desired profit plus the 25 units you lost on the first race. If the favourite was 6/4 your investment would be 50 units. You can see that the theory appears to be fine, but the reality something different. The INEVITABLE long losing sequence would require you to have a huge betting bank, and a bookmaker who will allow you place what would become very large bets. Even if you have the first, you are very unlikely to have the second. When that losing sequence occurs, any profits made from previous days will disappear.